Acrylic Acid and Ester Market Analysis Weekly (10.15-10.19)

Acrylic acid and ester market analysis

Acrylic acid, this week the domestic acrylic acid market continued to pull up the trend, as of This Friday, the domestic acrylic acid price in East China 10100-10300 yuan/ton. At the beginning of this week, raw material propylene remained at a high level, manufacturers' offers rose sharply, up 300-400 yuan/ton compared with last week's close. In the latter part of the week, although the high level of propylene fell, the influence of supply and demand tended to be obvious this week. The supply of acrylic acid by manufacturers was tight, and the holders mostly maintained limited sales operation, and the high-end price was gradually promoted. In terms of refined acid, the domestic market price of refined acid continued to rise this week. As of This Friday, the domestic refined acid price in East China is 10,300-10,500 yuan/ton.

Butyl acrylate, this week the domestic butyl acrylate market market narrow range to explore the trend, as of This Friday, butyl acrylate east China market price in 11100-11300 yuan/ton. Due to high prices of raw materials propylene and n-butanol, the manufacturer increased the offer by 200 yuan/ton compared with last week. At the same time, acrylic acid spot supply tight atmosphere to boost the butyl ester market mentality, holding merchants continue to control the volume of shipments.

Supply side analysis

On the supply side, this week's domestic acrylic acid plant operating rate of 74.2%. This week, Huizhou Cnooc acrylic plant stopped for maintenance, the overall spot supply of propylene is tight.

The operation rate of butyl acrylate unit was 73.9%, and the starting load was at a high level. This week, butyl LAN restarts; The butyl ester unit of Cnooc will be stopped for maintenance, which is expected to take about 45 days.

Later maintenance plan: Acrylic acid and butyl ester units in Qilu Kaitai New Area are expected to be stopped for maintenance at the end of October; An acrylic plant of Ningbo Formosa Plastics is expected to stop for maintenance in November.

Raw material market analysis

This week, the high level of the domestic propylene market has fallen. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market is 9,750-9,850 yuan/ton, and that in East China market is 9,650-9,850 yuan/ton. On the supply side, low-cost goods from northeast China flow into Shandong. Under the influence of this, refineries slowly increase their inventory and take the initiative to sell at a lower profit, leading to the downward shift of the offer center in the propylene market. At the demand side, the polypropylene period or the price continues to go down, plus the increase in maintenance of downstream factories, all the demand reduction, the recent maintenance of Anqing Shuguang, Shandong Jianlan butanoctanol device, Shandong Binhua Dongrui plant epoxy propane, etc. Next week, propylene supply is sufficient, the demand side due to the profits of powder enterprises, the demand for propylene is relatively stable, it is expected that the price center of propylene market will continue to move down next week.

This week, the domestic n-butanol market trend is weak, as of Friday, the market price of East China is 7900-8000 yuan/ton. Week in the overall market trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side of n-butanol is stable, but the cost pressure of some downstream products is large, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high, so the procurement is cheap. In addition, this week raw material propylene continuous decline, n-butanol market lost cost support. Entering next week, there are still downward risks in cost support, and the enthusiasm of buying is not high, it is expected that next week n-butanol deposit downward risks.

Market Forecast for next Week

On the supply side, the domestic acrylic acid plant is expected to start loading about 70% next week. The current factory inventory is general, and the holder has no inventory pressure.

On the demand side, the downstream demand performance is ok, receiving goods is good, in the short term or just need to purchase.

On the cost side, the decline of raw materials has a weak effect, but the change of raw materials and costs will not immediately affect the market operation level. At present, supply and demand are the dominant factors.

To sum up, acrylic acid and ester prices are expected to remain high or narrow range up next week.