Acrylic Acid and Ester Market Analysis Weekly (10.22-10.26)

Ⅰ. This Week's Market Overview

Acrylic acid, domestic acrylic acid market this week narrow upward trend, as of This Friday, the price of domestic acrylic acid in East China 10200-10300 yuan/ton. Because manufacturers have no inventory pressure and control the volume of shipment, the market spot supply slightly tight, so in the beginning of the week to push up prices. The downstream side gradually filled positions during the obvious early rise, followed by limited order strength and raw material propylene prices continued to decline, so the late market price trend in the week to maintain high and stable. In terms of refined acid, this week the domestic refined acid market is in high consolidation, and the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively light. As of This Friday, the domestic refined acid price in East China is 10,400-10,500 yuan/ton.

Butyl acrylate, the domestic butyl acrylate market has been closed in a narrow range this week. By This Friday, the price of butyl acrylate in east China market is 11100-11200 yuan/ton. Early acrylic strong rise of butyl acrylate support effect is obvious, the recent trend of raw materials propylene and n-butanol is weak, high acrylic price stable, manufacturers butyl ester price stable operation, but the downstream demand is general, traders store shipping demand, narrow loosening of the negotiating space, butyl ester trading center of gravity at the high end of the fall.

Ⅱ. Supply side analysis

On the supply side, this week's domestic acrylic acid plant operating rate of 74.4%. This week, 30,000 tons/year acrylic plant in Old Area of Kaitai was restarted. Huizhou Cnooc acrylic acid plant stopped for maintenance, the overall spot supply of acrylic acid is tight.

The operating rate of butyl acrylate unit was 72.4%, and the starting load was at a high level. The butyl ester unit of Cnooc will be stopped for maintenance, which is expected to take about 45 days.

Later maintenance plan: Acrylic acid and butyl ester units in Qilu Kaitai New Area are expected to be stopped for maintenance at the end of October; An acrylic plant of Ningbo Formosa Plastics is expected to stop for maintenance in November.

Ⅲ. Raw material market analysis

This week, the price of propylene in the domestic market dropped sharply. By Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 8750-9000 yuan/ton, and that in East China market was 9400-9500 yuan/ton. On the supply side, there are more ships arriving at ports, and the supply of goods in northeast China continues to decline, which has a great impact on the propylene market in Shandong province, a great inventory pressure of refineries, and sufficient propylene supply in east China. Demand side, the downstream overhaul device is larger, butanoctanol and propylene oxide factory propylene inventory is high, falling market sentiment is strong. External propylene market prices also continued to fall. Enter next week, propylene market supply is sufficient, the demand side is still relatively weak, polypropylene period, spot market weakness, it is expected that the domestic propylene market price will continue to move down, the decline may slow down.

The domestic n-butanol market fell sharply this week, with the price of 7600 yuan/ton in East China market as of Friday. During the week, due to propylene price decline, downstream bearish sentiment is heavier, most downstream to reduce their own inventory to reduce the external mining, n-butanol factory shipment pressure is larger. N - butanol supply and demand side overall support is weak. Entering next week, there is a risk that the cost side will continue to weaken, and n-butanol factory inventory pressure is still in next week, it is expected that the domestic n-butanol market may keep a narrow range of decline.

Ⅳ. Market Forecast for next Week

On the supply side, acrylic acid manufacturers sales and factories are not under great pressure, butyl ester shipment is not ideal, and next week near the end of the month, middlemen save shipment demand. From the follow-up manufacturer maintenance arrangement, the supply side is good support.

On the demand side, the downstream side mainly consumes the accumulated inventory in the early stage, and the small single needs to fill the warehouse, which promotes the price of acrylic acid and butyl ester flatly.

On the cost side, the raw material propylene and n-butanol markets are weakening, and the support strength on the cost side decreases.

To sum up, acrylic acid prices are expected to hold steady next week, butyl ester or interval shock finishing.