Acrylic acid and Ester Market Analysis Report, October 2018

Ⅰ. A review of acrylic acid and ester market trend in October 2018

Acrylic acid, October acrylic acid market rose after holding steady trend. By the end of the month east China market acrylic acid offer 10,200-10,300 yuan/ton. After the National Day with propylene strong rise, under the support of high costs, acrylic offers to explore. Since the middle of the year, acrylic acid manufacturers have taken advantage of tight spot supply to continue to pull up, and the downstream actively buy up, the real single price rose from 9,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10,200-10,300 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the high level of propylene continues to fall, and the high price of acrylic acid is stable. In terms of refined acid, this month is the traditional sales season in the domestic super absorbent resin market. SAP manufacturers' orders are in a good mood, and the start-up load is rising, and refined acid is stable after rising. By the end of the month, east China market ice crystal acrylic acid offer 10,400-10,500 yuan/ton.

Butyl acrylate, Butyl acrylate in October market volatility finishing, up after the first steady fall. By the end of the month, the domestic market price of butyl ester east China 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton. In the month, the butyl acrylate rise more obvious and large range of reasons for the raw material surface of the high cost support and acrylic acid rise driven by. Since the middle of October, butyl ester kept increasing the offer and the downstream actively bought the increase. The actual price on the market rose from 10,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,200 yuan/ton. In the latter half of the year, raw material propylene price fell from high, butanol trend was weak, butyl ester downstream procurement on demand, continued to drive the strength is not good, butyl ester price trend is weak.

Ⅱ. Domestic acrylic acid and ester supply analysis

In October, the output of acrylic acid was 153,000 tons, and the operating rate of acrylic acid plants was about 73.6%. Medium and high starting load of the device. Plant dynamics in October: Shenyang Wax Chemical, Shandong Hongxin and Zhejiang Satellite, which stopped for maintenance in September, restarted after the National Day. Qilu Kaitai 30,000 tons/year acrylic plant was stopped for maintenance on October 12, and CNOOC acrylic plant was stopped for maintenance on October 15.

In October, the output of butyl ester was 104,000 tons, and the operating rate of butyl ester plant was about 66%. Dynamic of butyl ester plant: Shenyang Wax Chemical, Shandong Hongxin and Zhejiang Satellite, which stopped for maintenance in September, all restarted after The National Day; Wanzhou Petrochemical, Lanhua Butyl Ester and Jiangmen Qianxin plant restarted in October, but qianxin plant stopped again a week later due to cost pressure.

Maintenance plan in November: Formosa Plastics no.1 oxidation plant, Shanghai Huayi Acrylic and ester plant.

Ⅲ. Domestic acrylic acid and ester upstream market analysis

In October, the domestic propylene market rose sharply and hit a new high in 2014, then fell sharply and recovered slightly at the end of the month. In the first half of the month, the inventory status of refineries and the failure of Hebei Haiwei during the National Day resulted in the tight supply of propylene market. After the festival, polypropylene futures prices skyrocketed, driving the price of granular powder higher, propylene demand is stable and improving. In the second half of the month, the supply of propylene in northeast China increased, and the supply of propylene in east China was also sufficient. The downstream polypropylene market continued to weaken, and some butanoctanol and propylene oxide plants stopped, resulting in a significant reduction in the downstream demand, and the price of propylene in the market plunged day after day. Near the end of the month, some downstream factories began to pick up the bottom to replenish goods, refinery inventory pressure slowly reduced, offer to explore the driving force increased, propylene market stopped falling slightly rebound. As of the end of the month, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price in East China is 9000-9350 yuan/ton.

N-butanol, this month the domestic n-butanol market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the positive effect of propylene rising was transmitted to n-butanol level. N-butanol factories kept increasing the listing price in order to pass on the cost pressure, and the market rose slightly. In the middle and second half of the year, propylene dropped sharply. After finishing the early order of n-butanol factory, the new order was not smooth. The increase of inventory pressure obviously caused the factory to sell at a profit, and the market weakened. By the end of the month, east China market mainstream transaction 7400-7450 yuan/ton.

Ⅳ. Acrylic acid and ester market trend forecast in November 2018

The supply side

In November 2018, the domestic acrylic acid and plant load is expected to be about 65 percent. The acrylic and ester units in Qilu Kaitai New Area were stopped for maintenance at the end of October, and production is expected to resume in mid-November. Cnooc's acrylic and ester plants are expected to restart by the end of November. In addition, Shanghai Huayi and Ningbo Formosa plastics have parking maintenance plans.

Demand side

In November, the overall demand of acrylic acid and ester downstream is general, and it is expected that downstream factories will maintain just need to fill the warehouse or take the goods in the early order.

Tape master volume overall demand driven by slow, on butyl ester price driven by limited.

Costs

On the whole, in November, the increase in the supply of propylene market will bring a certain negative impact on the propylene market, while the demand side may be stable and weak. It is expected that the propylene market will maintain stability after rising, and the risk of the fire village callback in the later period, and pay close attention to the trend of polypropylene futures.

In terms of n-butanol, in November, the operating rate of domestic n-butanol factories remained high, the last supply was still sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, and the cost end support was also the core factor affecting the trend of n-butanol. It is expected that n-butanol in November has continued downside risks.

In November 2018, the domestic acrylic acid and butyl ester market is expected to maintain a range of shock finishing. The market spot supply and factory inventory are relatively abundant, and under the expectation that the demand will continue to drive slowly, on the premise of no significant change in polypropylene futures, it is expected that the domestic acrylic acid and ester will weaken and balance the finishing operation in November.