Acrylic Acid and Ester Market Analysis Weekly (12.10-12.14)

Ⅰ.This week's market overview

Acrylic acid, this week the domestic acrylic acid market is stable in a small rise, as of This Friday, the domestic acrylic acid east China mainstream offer 8600-8800 yuan/ton. At the beginning of this week, due to the substantial increase of raw materials and good shipment last week, limited spot delivery and transportation due to snowy days in some regions and delayed restart of Shanghai Huayi, the manufacturer offered 100-200 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and the firm orders were followed up slowly.

Butyl acrylate, this week the domestic butyl acrylate market rose first and then stable, the beginning of the week manufacturers offer narrow range upward, as of This Friday, butyl acrylate east China market offer 9800-10000 yuan/ton. The price increase was driven by good buying last week and limited supply due to weather. During the week raw materials continue to decline, the downstream once again back to the wait-and-see state, the week trading atmosphere is flat, the market into the consolidation stage.

Ⅱ. Supply side analysis

On the supply side, this week the domestic acrylic acid plant operating rate of 70.8%. This week starts the load basically with last week flat. Shanghai Huayi plant restart delay, Formosa plastics resumed two oxidation operation, other factories normal operation.

Butylacrylate units were operating at 54.7%, down from last week. This week, shengcobutyl ester device stopped for maintenance, Shandong Hongxin butyl ester device stopped for maintenance, Lanhua still stopped, Shanghai Huayi device restart delay.

Ⅲ. Raw material market analysis

This week, the price of propylene in the domestic market continues to fall broadly. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market is 7,600 yuan/ton, and that in East China market is 7,800 yuan/ton. Week international crude oil and polypropylene futures prices fell, bearish market mentality. Secondly, the supply of propylene on the outer plate is sufficient, and there are more shipping times to the port. In addition, the load reduction of shenhua Huanc device in northeast Jilin Province and the failure stop of PP device in downstream of pucheng Clean energy in northwest China lead to the increase of propylene commodity quantity outside the area and the increase of pressure on the supply side. On the demand side, after the previous round of replenishment, the downstream propylene raw material inventory is enough to digest for a period of time, and the overall buying enthusiasm is poor under the sharp drop. Enter next week, the supply side pressure is still more obvious, while the demand side, in the declining market demand is weak, the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively dull, it is expected that the domestic propylene market next week or continue to run mainly weak.

This week, the domestic n-butanol market has fallen back, and the market price in East China is 6750 yuan/ton as of Friday. In the week, raw material propylene prices continue to fall, n-butanol cost support decline, the market center of gravity rapidly lower, and then many factories cut profits, but the improvement of transaction is limited. Enter next week, supply or maintain relatively abundant, demand is mainly just need to purchase, the biggest factor affecting n-butanol is still cost, with propylene or tend to normalize in the short term, n-butanol is expected to decline or not much next week.

Ⅳ. Market forecast for Thursday and next week

On the supply side, acrylic acid and butyl ester manufacturers operating rate will be narrow next week, the market spot supply is expected to gradually increase.

On the demand side, due to the weather factors in some regions, the demand began to weaken, and the early procurement is relatively concentrated, so it is now in the consumption stage.

On the cost side, raw materials propylene and n-butanol prices fell, acrylic acid and ester cost support weakened.

To sum up, next week acrylic acid and ester focus on supply and demand, is expected to take a steady stalemate.