Acrylic Acid and Ester Market Analysis Weekly (12.17-12.21)

Ⅰ. This week's market overview

Acrylic acid, the domestic acrylic acid market continues to arrange and run this week, as of This Friday, the mainstream offer of domestic acrylic acid in East China is 8600-8800 yuan/ton. During the week, manufacturers control the supply speed to maintain stable operation. But the downstream demand is general, on the market to eat more bearish attitude, the market solid single transaction more sporadic fill positions, the overall market trading atmosphere is weak.

Butyl acrylate, domestic butyl acrylate market runs steadily this week, till This Friday, butyl acrylate east China market offers 9800-10000 yuan/ton. This week's buying and selling game is the main market this week, the seller's price, factory quotation is stable, and with the continuous decline of international crude oil, the market is more bearish, less trading volume within the week, the transaction atmosphere is weak.

Ⅱ. Supply side analysis

On the supply side, this week's domestic acrylic acid plant operating rate of 68.5%. Starting load of this week decreased slightly compared with last week. Lanhua oxidation plant was stopped for maintenance at the beginning of this week. Taixing shengke this week two oxidation run.

The butylacrylate unit was operating at 55.6%, up from last week. This week, shengcobutyl ester device restarted operation, Shandong Hongxin butyl ester device stopped for maintenance, Lanhua still stopped, Shanghai Huayi device restarted delay, Jiangmen Qianxin stopped.

Ⅲ. Raw material market analysis

This week, the price center of the domestic propylene market moved up. By Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7,800 yuan/ton, and that in East China market was 8,000 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the quantity of external supply to Hong Kong remains at a normal level. The commodity quantity of propylene in northeast China increases, the supply of propylene in east China is slightly tight, and the peripheral supply of shandong is abundant. At the beginning of this week, as downstream factories went bottom-fishing and replenishing, refinery inventories decreased. Later, as crude oil plummeted and the macro weakened, some refineries were under pressure in shipments and inventories. At the demand side, the starting load of each powder factory is high, butyl-octanol device has little change, and the overall demand is relatively stable. Entering next week, the supply side of the propylene market is under great pressure and the demand is relatively stable. However, the current negative impact of crude oil has weakened the market trading atmosphere. It is expected that the weak propene market will mainly decline next week.

This week domestic n - butanol market stabilizes, horizontal collation. As of Friday, the market price in East China is 6600-6650 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week with short buying and downstream just need to purchase, n-butanol transaction has improved, manufacturers push up the offer. Into the second half of the week, crude oil fell to bring bad news, high turnover orders, the market rally was blocked, the demand side of n-butanol support weakened. Next week, the supply side of the n-butanol market is stable, and the cost side is difficult to find positive support. It is expected that the possibility of n-butanol narrow range shock is larger next week.

Ⅳ. Market forecast for Thursday and next week

On the supply side, the acrylic acid and butyl ester units are on and off, and the operating rate of the units does not fluctuate, so the supply is relatively stable.

On the demand side, the downstream intention to receive goods is not high, just need to purchase mainly. Market spot transactions in general, the region's digestion speed is slow.

On the cost side, the trend of raw materials propylene and n-butanol fluctuates in the range, which has a weak impact on the cost support of acrylic acid and ester.

To sum up, acrylic acid and ester market is expected to run next week mainly weak.